One Reason: Why Every Team Can Win The Champions League

The UEFA Champions League is set to return on August the 7th with the second leg of the Juventus vs Lyon and Man City vs Real Madrid Round of 16 ties. Then on the 8th Bayern vs Chelsea and Barcelona vs Napoli will complete their second leg matches in their home stadiums. Once those matches finish, the eight remaining teams will travel to Lisbon, Portugal to finish a one-and-done style tournament to crown a UCL champion. With twelve teams remaining in the competition and still in contention to win the title, the tournament is as closely contested as it’s ever been. I’ve come up with one reason that each remaining team can win the Champions League and I’ll present that to you in this post. Enjoy!

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~~~ Atalanta - Devastating Attack:

Via: Hindustan Times

For the second year in a row, we have a surprise participant in the Quarterfinals of the Champions League. Atalanta will try to one-up Ajax and make it to the final (and maybe even win it). The main reason they can do so is because they have such a free-flowing and clinical attack. Atalanta isn’t a phony contender. In a single-elimination Champions League, attack is going to be the best form of defense. Let’s look at the cold hard facts of this Atalanta team and their attacking production.

*Stats as of July 23rd, 2020*

• 95 goals in 35 Serie A games (2.7 Goals Per Game)

• 18 goals in 8 Champions League games (2.25 Goals Per Game)

• They scored 8 goals across two matches against Valencia

• They have a 50% shot accuracy in Serie A, meaning half of their 515 shots have been on target.

• They have scored on 36.5% of their shots on target in Serie A

• 5 players have scored double-digit goals in all competitions

• Josip Ilicic, Papu Gomez, and Duvan Zapata have scored a combined 46 goals and assisted on a combined 35 goals over all competitions this season.

It’s pretty clear that this team can score four goals on you in the blink of an eye, and basically every player has contributed to a goal in some way shape, or form this year. They’ve scored more than 5 goals on a multitude of occasions, and in a one-off game type of format offense is king. Atalanta could really inflict some damage and go all the way.

~~~ Atletico Madrid - Defense:

Via: Marca

I know that I said that offense is going to be the best form of defense in a short tournament such as this. However, Atletico Madrid has one of the best and most well drilled defensive units in the world of football. There is no reason to go for a non-authentic approach if you are Simeone and Madrid. Their defensive structure and discipline is the main reason that they were able to beat Liverpool in the Champions League. I understand that it took a world-class attacking performance in overtime to win the tie, but if they weren’t able to shutout Liverpool in the first game they wouldn’t have had a chance in the second leg. And in a one-off tournament, they should be able to play the type of game where you bag an early goal and hold on for the win. Let’s look at some defensive stats for Atletico Madrid.

• 27 goals allowed in 38 La Liga games (0.7 Goals Allowed Per Game)

• 7 goals allowed in 8 Champions League games (0.88 Goals Allowed Per Game)

• 21 Clean Sheets in La Liga and Champions League

• Jan Oblak had a 75% save percentage and 102 saves in La Liga and the UCL

I think the stats speak for themselves. Atlético Madrid has possibly the best goalkeeper in the world in Jan Oblak and one of the best defensive units. Their ability to defend for a full 90 minutes and hit teams on the counter will give them an amazing shot to win three games in August.

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Barcelona - Lionel Messi:

Via: Forbes

Even in the midst of possibly the worst season your club has seen, from a cultural standpoint, there is always hope for Barcelona when they have Messi. We’ve seen it time and time again over the past few years. Barcelona will have a bad game, but a magical Messi performance will save them. It’s possible he does the same this year in this shortened format. Here are some important stats for Messi this year.

• Messi scored 25 goals and had 21 assists in La Liga, the first player in La Liga history to have above 20 in both categories.

• His 21 assists were good for the most in a La Liga season ever.

• His 90 touches per game in La Liga show Barcelona’s reliance on him.

• Messi had 5 goal involvements in his 6 UCL matches this season.

• He averages 1.3 goal involvements per game in La Liga and the Champions League.

It’s pretty clear that Messi has had a really good season. He’s not only been scoring goals at a good pace this season, but he’s also had the best assisting season of his career. This is a product of him dropping into midfield more and being the facilitator. If Barcelona wants to get past Napoli and win 3 games after that, Messi will have to be on peak form. With no second legs, that’s 100% possible.

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Bayern Munich - Pace:

Via: Bundesliga

Bayern Munich is fast. Let me rephrase because fast is the understatement of the century. This team has blistering pace that is nearly impossible to contain. It’s hard to find exact stats on the pace of Bayern’s players so I’ll do this the primitive way. From what I’ve seen the fastest players on Bayern are Kingsley Coman, Alphonso Davies, and Serge Gnabry. Here are some of the most important stats for these three players.

• Kingsley Coman has 10 goal involvements in 30 matches across the Bundesliga and UCL.

• Coman also has 73 successful dribbles in both competitions.

• Alphonso Davies has 10 goal involvements in 33 matches in the Bundesliga and UCL.

• Davies also has a 74% tackle completion rate in the Bundesliga and UCL.

• Serge Gnabry has 29 goal involvements across 37 games in the Bundesliga and UCL.

• Gnabry also has 11 goals with his right foot and 7 with his left, showing his two-footedness.

• These three players have an average of 18.6% cross accuracy across the UCL and Bundesliga. 

These three players contribute to the team with their pace and precision and make life easier for Robert Lewandowski, with 45 goals across the Bundesliga and Champions League. Obviously Thomas Muller and his 22 assists this season have helped Lewa the most, but the team wouldn’t function as well without the pace from their wide players. Their talent level at each position is high and their ability to tire out teams will be a big reason why they can win it all. There’s a reason they are the favorites.

~~~ Chelsea - Wing Play:

Via: Fox Sports

Anybody who has watched Chelsea since the restart will have seen two players be the most prevalent pieces on the attacking side of the ball. Their ability to work together, and with the striker, has made Chelsea one of the most exciting teams going forward in the Premier League. I’m talking, of course, about Christian Pulisic and Willian. The American and the Brazilian have found great form and are lighting defenses on fire, I mean, did you watch Pulisic against Liverpool? It seems as if it doesn’t matter whether Giroud or Abraham is playing, Pulisic and Willian will get them involved in the game. Let’s look at some key stats for these two players since the restart.

• 4 of Willian’s 9 goals this season have come post restart, a big reason why he’s having his most prolific season to date.

• William also has recorded 2 assists since the break.

• Christian Pulisic has 4 goals and 4 assists since the restart.

• Two of his assists have come from winning PK’s, his teammate William dispatched both.

It’s clear that both of these guys work together in their play and benefit from the skillsets of the other. Pulisic has been the most electric and important player for Chelsea in the past 8 matches, notching a goal or an assist in all but one match. When we realize that Giroud has scored 5 goals since the restart and Abraham has scored 2 (even with limited minutes), it’s evident that the impact of Pulisic and Willian stretches to the entire attack. With a weak defense and inconsistent goalkeeper, Pulisic and Willian will have to be their magical selves just to make a comeback on Bayern. While I don’t see that happening, they certainly have the attacking ability to do so.

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Juventus - Cristiano Ronaldo:

Via: as

Juventus has been inconsistent this season, and while they haven’t been horrible they haven’t been their usual selves. But that’s okay because when you have an all-time great player like Ronaldo on your team you can be a little lackadaisical. It’s not as if they are a horrible team but having a UCL master helps a lot. Ronaldo has had a great season scoring-wise and has started to really gel with his teammates.

• Ronaldo has 32 goals in 38 appearances in the UCL and Serie A.

• He scored on average a goal every 91 minutes in Serie A.

• 56% of all his shots are on target in Serie A

There really isn’t much else to say other than this man has been clinical this year. Although he hasn’t been up to his usual standards in the Champions League, his form in Serie A suggests he could pick himself up in August. They still have a 1-0 goal deficit to make up against Lyon, but Ronaldo has proven that he can do just that and if Juventus make it to Portugal expect the hometown man to have a great performance.

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Lyon - They Won’t:

Via: Sky Sports

It may be harsh to say that Lyon won’t win the Champions League this season, but it was impossible for me to even come up with one good reason that they can. Even if they can hold on to their fragile lead against Juventus, they’ll have the face Real Madrid of Manchester City. I favor both of those teams in a one-off game and I don’t see a way around it for Lyon. Sure they have attacking talent, but the team lacks depth or any real spark past Memphis Depay. They haven’t played in months and won’t play anything past a couple of warmup fixtures against bad opponents. Even in a different format I expect them to die out like a ten billion-year-old star. I won’t sugar coat it, they can’t win the Champions League.

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Leipzig - Midfield:

Via: Tottenham Insight

The loss of Timo Werner will really put a wrench in Leipzig’s UCL challenge, as they lose 32 goals in the Champions League and Bundesliga. However, they do have replacements in Yussuf Poulsen and Patrik Schick (whose loan has been extended). While those guys aren’t game-winners they are serviceable forward that will provide an attacking threat, especially with players such as Dani Olmo and Emil Forsberg adding additional help from the wings and attacking positions. However, the main game-winners for Leipzig come from their midfield. Marcel Sabitzer, Christopher Nkunku, and Konrad Laimer have created a diverse midfield full of talent. Even when you look to the bench you see players like Tyler Adams and Kevin Kampl who can always put in a shift. We’ll be looking at the stats for the three main starters but keep in mind that this team wouldn’t be ruined by injuries to their main midfielders.

• Marcel Sabitzer has 22 goal involvements in 39 games (Bundesliga and Serie A), which means he’s had 0.56 goal involvements per game.

• Sabitzer also has a 79.5% pass accuracy.

• Christopher Nkunku has 18 goal involvements, 13 assists, in 32 Bundesliga matches.

• Nkunku also has a 86% pass accuracy.

• Konrad Laimer isn’t a huge contributor to goals directly, but he does complete 81% of his passes while completing 1,067 in total this season.

• Laimer also has 73 touches per game which insinuates that he’s very involved in the play. He’s also won 46% of his 364 duels this season (in the Bundesliga).

Each of the midfielders has their own style. Sabitzer is always willing to shoot the ball, and his passes are usually of extreme difficulty which explains his 80%> completion rate. Nkunku wants to be involved in every attack and is the main provider to the strikers. It helps that he had Timo Werner to pass to, but he’s also connected with Poulsen this season at a solid level. Laimer doesn’t attack a lot, but what he does do is facilitate the game. He makes a ton of passes, always gets stuck in on his tackles, and he always wants to ball to advance the play. With solid midfield depth, and good strikers in front of them I expect the midfield to be a big reason they could beat Atletico Madrid and maybe even go all the way.

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Manchester City - Depth of Talent:

Via: Sky Sports

Everybody knows that Manchester City has insane depth. If you’ve ever played Fantasy Premier League you know the pain of having a City player who doesn’t play because Pep is rotating the squad. Guardiola is allowed to rotate the squad because of their insane attacking and midfield depth. Here are all the players who have played above 1,000 minutes this season in the Premier League for Man City;

Ederson, Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Rodri, Fernandinho, Kyle Walker, Bernardo Silva, Ilkay Gündogan, Gabriel Jesus, Riyad Mahrez, David Silva, Nicolas Otamendi, Benjamin Mendy, Sergio Aguero, Oleksandr Zinchenko, John Stones, Joao Cancelo, Aymeric Laporte.

Just look at all the talent there! And that’s without young starlet Phil Foden. Even when we reduce the criteria to players who played 2,000 minutes there are still a good amount of guys. In fact, let me show you some stats for players with over 2,000 minutes player for Manchester City this season (Premier League only).

• Ederson has only allowed 28 goals all season, even tho he’s been expected to allow 28.5! He also comes out an average of 17.7 feet when playing the sweeper role showing his defensive and offensive prowess.

• Kevin De Bruyne has 30 goal involvements this season, with 19 assists. One more in City’s final game and he’ll equal Thierry Henry’s record for assists in a season (Premier League).

• Raheem Sterling has 19 goals this season, tied for the 4th most with Mo Salah going into the final day of the season. That’s after being only expected to score 16 based on advanced stats.

• Rodri has 3 goals and 2 assists this season, but more importantly, he’s completed 2,319 passes this year on a 93% pass completion rate. He’s been everything they wanted him to be and more.

• Fernandinho has been his old self this year, as even though he’s been asked to play center back at times, he’s still completed 90.5% of his 2,137 pass attempts. Oh yea, he also has won the ball ok 40% of all pressures. 

• Kyle Walker has had a crazy year off the pitch, but on it he’s been solid. He’s shown his offensive adventure completing 83.6% of all his long passes. 

• Lastly, Bernardo Silva has been his old creative self this season. He‘s had 13 goal involvements and been one of the biggest chance creators on the team.

The depth in talent on the team is evident and while the defense hasn’t been fully up to par this year, attackers such as Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling have found a way to be effective. Have fun trying to beat them in a one-off matchup.

~~~ Napoli - Organization:

Via: CBS Sports

If Napoli wants to beat Barcelona in the second leg of their Round of 16 tie, and make a run at the competition, they’ll need to be organized. They’ve shown that they can do that and hit on the counter all season. That’s exactly what they did in the 1st leg against Barca and it almost got them a win. There aren’t any stats that I can find to illustrate the counter-attacking ability and organization this team has, but watch any of their matches and you’ll see that it’s there. Especially against better teams they know exactly how to tacticize. The talent is there, Napoli just need to be smart with how they play.

~~~

PSG - Front Three:

Via: CNN

Even with the Ligue 1 season canceled and the only true competitive football on their horizon being a cup final, I still think PSG has what it takes to go all the way. You can’t argue against their attacking talent, especially their front three. They won’t have Cavani with them in August as his contract has expired, but Mauro Icardi is ready to take his spot as a full-time PSG player. Let’s look at some stats for these three players.

• Neymar has 22 goal contributions in Ligue 1 and the Champions League.

• Neymar also has 93 touches per game in the Champions League and is fouled 3.7 times per game.

• Kylian Mbappe has 32 goal contributions, with 9 of them coming in the Champions League (7 UCL matches)

• Mbappe also completes 2.4 dribbles per game.

• Mauro Icardi has scored 5 goals in the Champions League this season in 6 matches.

Replacing Cavani with Icardi should be simple and should go off without a hitch. Expect Neymar and Mbappe to be as good as ever, and hopefully for them the time off won’t hinder their chances. Their matchup against Atalanta will be fun, free flowing, and could produce the winner of the tournament.

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Real Madrid - Consistency:

Via: Al Jazeera

When I think of the most consistent team in Europe this season, my brain goes straight to Real Madrid. They didn’t slip up too much in their La Liga title win, and they’ve looked good in the Champions League. Even though they are down going into their second leg against Manchester City, they have a good enough team to overturn the tie. If they can, which is a big if, their consistency will allow them to control matches and win out. Here are some stats that demonstrate their consistency.

• In their 3 La Liga losses this season, Real Madrid didn’t lose by more than 1 goal.

• They scored more than one goal in 23 games this La Liga season.

• Real Madrid had, on average, 59% of possession in La Liga.

• They conceded 0.7 goals per game.

Those stats scream consistency. They barely ever lost, but when they did they kept the games close. They scored multiple goals more times than they didn’t, and they made sure the other team couldn’t get the ball. If they can play like this against Man City they have a real chance of making it to Portugal.

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